State Space Models

All state space models are written and estimated in the R programming language. The models are available here with instructions and R procedures for manipulating the models here here.

Friday, August 28, 2026

World System (1950-2000+): The Economy of Canada


This page is UNDER CONSTRUCTION but you can go ahead an explore the Questions presented below using Wikipedia links and State-Space Models.


Unemployment is an important historical controller in Canada as is the Ecological Footprint. Here is a chatGPT report on the Unemployment effects of a Trump Trade War:



You can run the CA_L20 Model on my Google site using R-code.

Notes


Questions

  1. Do you agree with chatGPT's  analysis of Trump Trade War effects on Unemployment?
  2. What might the effects of a Trump Trade War have on Canada's Ecological Footprint?
  3. What happened between 1978 and 1996 to create feedback cycles with Canada's historical controllers, CA2 and CA3?


CNL20 Model Measurement Matrix



The CAL20 model has three component state variables that explain 98.4% of the variation in the indicator variables (taken from the World Development Indicators), the KOF Index of Globalization, the Human Development Index (HDI) and the Ecological Footprint (EF). CA1 = (Growth), CA2 = (LU-EF) and CA3 = (EF+L-Q-CO2-N).

CNL20 AIC Statistics


The best CN_L20 Attractor Path model takes input from the North America Regional Model (NA_L20).



CNL20 Regional Model




The best CN_L20 Attractor Path model takes input from the North America Regional Model (NA_L20).

NAL20 Model Measurement Matrix









 

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Globalization, CO2 Emissions and Unemployment in Italy (World-System, 1950-2000+).


This page is UNDER CONSTRUCTION but you can study the graphic above and the State Space model outputs below. 




Notes

You can run the ITL20 Model in R-code (here). For more of my posts see Blog Roll: Italythe Boiler Plate and the Introduction to State Space Models.

Questions

  1. The ITL20 Model is stable and cyclical? A steady state can be maintained by the two historical controllers: IT2 = (KOF+HDI-LU-EF) a Globalization-Unemployment and IT3 = (LU-N-CO2-EG) an Emissions-Unemployment (see below), that is, Globalization and Emissions controllers. chatGPT concludes that these two controllers are tracking structural changes in the Economy of Italy. The historical structure involved IT3 = (Q - CO2) and the emerging structure involves IT2 = (Q -> -CO2). Do you agree?
  2. To make things more complicated, how do the two historical controllers (IT2 and IT3) relate to conventional problems facing Italy?


Wikipedia Links


ITL20 Model Measurement Matrix





IT1 = (Growth), IT2 = (KOF+HDI-LU-EF) a Globalization-Unemployment and IT3 = (LU-N-CO2-EG) an Emissions-Unemployment controller.


 ITL20 BAU Systems Matrix